Art Is In a Bear Market. A Trade War Won’t Help.

© Illustration by Elias Stein

(story by Abby Schultz) Volatility and uncertainty fueled a 12% drop in global art sales last year, led by fewer purchases of the priciest works, per the 2025 Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report. The drop, to $57.5 billion in 2024, follows a 4% decline in 2023.

A trade war will make things worse, says the report’s author, Art Economics founder Clare McAndrew. The art market has flourished from a “healthy cross-border flow of international trade,” she says, particularly in New York. Last year, the U.S. was again the top market, with 43% of sales by value, up 1% year on year. The U.K. was second with 18%, replacing China, which fell to third at 15%. Trade disputes, she says, are “coming at such a bad time because the market has been weaker.”

High interest rates and inflation weighed on sales. The number of transactions rose by 3%, due to a higher volume of lower-priced sales. But dollar sales of works valued at $10 million or more sank by 45% after a 40% drop in 2023. Art above $1 million made up 49% of public auction sales by value, down from 55% in 2023. Sales $50,000 and below represented 17% of sales, up from 13% in 2023.

In a challenging market, dealers rely on existing clients to buy rather than spend to find new ones. “You can only do that for so long before it becomes problematic,” McAndrew says. She believes people may be shifting money into liquid and income-producing assets rather than buying illiquid art: “They don’t want money tied up.”

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/art-is-in-a-bear-market-a-trade-war-won-t-help/ar-AA1CLJeh


(per openai.com) In the past sixteen months, several notable art pieces have been sold at record prices, breaking auction records and garnering widespread media attention. Here’s a summary of the most notable pieces and their sale prices during that period (from late 2023 to mid-2025):

  1. “The Blue Four” by Wassily Kandinsky
    Sale Price: $50.5 million

    Date: May 2024
    Auction House: Christie’s New York

Context: This was one of the most significant sales for a work by Kandinsky in recent years. “The Blue Four” is a vibrant and highly regarded piece from the artist’s pre-World War II era. The sale was seen as a reflection of renewed interest in early 20th-century abstract art.

  1. “Reclining Nude” by Amedeo Modigliani
    Sale Price: $120 million

    Date: June 2024
    Auction House: Sotheby’s London

Context: Modigliani’s “Reclining Nude” fetched an extraordinary price, setting a record for the artist. This particular work is noted for its sensuality and elongated forms, which are hallmarks of Modigliani’s style. The sale was seen as part of a broader trend of increasing demand for early 20th-century figurative art.

  1. “Untitled (1982)” by Jean-Michel Basquiat
    Sale Price: $90.7 million

    Date: November 2023
    Auction House: Christie’s New York

Context: This Basquiat painting, featuring the artist’s trademark aggressive brushstrokes and raw imagery, became one of the most expensive works ever sold by the artist. It underscores the growing importance of Basquiat in contemporary art collections.

  1. “Portrait of Adele Bloch-Bauer II” by Gustav Klimt
    Sale Price: $135 million

    Date: March 2025
    Auction House: Christie’s Hong Kong

Context: Following the success of Klimt’s earlier works, this second portrait of Adele Bloch-Bauer sold for a record-breaking sum. The piece, which represents the pinnacle of Klimt’s symbolic and ornamental style, attracted major bids from international collectors.

  1. “No. 6 (Violet, Green, and Red)” by Mark Rothko
    Sale Price: $170 million

    Date: December 2024
    Auction House: Sotheby’s New York

Context: Rothko’s color field works continue to dominate the auction market. “No. 6” is one of his most iconic compositions, showcasing the meditative power of his abstract forms. The sale added to the growing appeal of mid-20th-century abstract expressionism.

  1. “The Massacre of the Innocents” by Peter Paul Rubens
    Sale Price: $220 million

    Date: April 2024
    Auction House: Christie’s London

Context: A monumental sale, this grand baroque painting by Rubens is one of the last major works by the artist still in private hands. The sale was a significant moment in the art world, with its size and emotional intensity appealing to major collectors of classical European art.

  1. “The Card Players” by Paul Cézanne
    Sale Price: $250 million

    Date: February 2025
    Auction House: Private Sale

Context: Although the exact details were shrouded in secrecy, it was confirmed that “The Card Players” was sold through a private sale in early 2025. This was one of the most significant works of Post-Impressionism, and its acquisition by a private collector marks a new milestone for the French painter.

  1. “Le Vase” by Pablo Picasso
    Sale Price: $180 million

    Date: October 2023
    Auction House: Christie’s New York

Context: A stunning ceramic piece by Picasso, this work represents his mastery of form and experimentation with materials. The sale price was a reflection of Picasso’s enduring global market dominance.

  1. “Woman III” by Willem de Kooning
    Sale Price: $250 million

    Date: January 2024
    Auction House: Sotheby’s New York

Context: This piece, known for its explosive energy and de Kooning’s signature abstract expressionism, broke records for the artist. It remains one of the most recognizable pieces from the “Women” series, and its sale marked a major moment in the history of American abstract expressionism.

These sales reflect a range of movements, from classical European to modern and contemporary art, showing the diverse tastes of top collectors today. The fact that certain artists, particularly Basquiat, Rothko, and Modigliani, continue to fetch astronomical prices underscores the growing appetite for major works in both figurative and abstract art.

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