Tag Archives: Money

This Might Have Been The Biggest Theft In History

 

… and how the biggest heist ever (central banking) might be facing the beginning of the end.

The following is a highly educational discussion with Bill Holter and Lynette Zang about Janet Yellen, monetary policy, principles of finance, a declining dollar, the future of pensions, precious metal hedges, and TONS of charts and data!

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How Will You Cope With A Lower Standard Of Living?

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The forces are mounting that will eventually overwhelm most Americans and send their standard of living to unknown depths. Americans that have only known the post WWII prosperity are ill equipped and educated to deal with depression level living. Easy credit and instant gratification have created a nation of whining, self absorbed, entitlement minded people with no moral or mental toughness.

Doug Casey believes we are headed for what he calls a super depression created by the ending of a debt super cycle. The bigger the debt cycle the bigger the depression that follows. That’s how reality works and most people are not prepared for reality.

When this depression, which has already started, gets momentum, it will overwhelm the plans of a society that is expecting to get things like social security, pensions and payouts from retirement plans they have paid into for many years. All of those things will disappear almost overnight and leave society gasping and stupefied over what to do. Their reactions will be to yell and scream and try to identify who to blame but the only person they should blame is the one in the mirror.

Many very smart people have raised the alarm and done their best to warn the sleeping public, but those slumbering masses have ignored the warnings and hit the snooze button one more time. The masses do not understand economics, do not want to understand economics and they will pay dearly for that ignorance in the coming days.

When the real unemployment rate becomes common knowledge as it increases substantially, people will be left to survive on what resources they have saved up outside the banking system that cannot be stolen by the politicians and bankers. That is a key point here. The assets you have outside the system that cannot be stolen from you with a few key strokes on some computer.

Those hoping for some miraculous event that will send the U.S. back to the days of manufacturing might and jobs for all will never see it happen. Those days are gone. The west line theory tells us our economy will slow down and become more modest as the shipping center of the world moves west to the next powerhouse region which is Asia. This is what history teaches us.

When people suddenly wake up one morning and they have no job, their retirement is gone and they need to care for their family, what will they do? When government services have collapsed and they suddenly realize they are now living in a third world country with few government services, what will they do? When the banks are closed and only a select few connected people have any type of money or access to goods, what will they do?

This is the reality that many people will face in the future and they have no idea how bad it can get. They refuse to contemplate the harsh reality they will be living in and take steps to mitigate the effects. To do so would be to acknowledge it could happen and they are taking personal responsibility. Personal responsibility is a dirty phrase in today’s entitlement society. To see some of the effects one only has to look at the collapse of society in Venezuela today to see what awaits.

When it happens it will all fall back to you to take responsibility for your family and take care of them for the duration. To do that you need to plan now for that eventuality and build up the resources you will need to provide food, shelter, clothing and security when the system fails to do it for you. You need to be Noah on his ark not the people watching as he floated away.

Having resources stored up is a must but it may not get you all the way through if the situation lasts for many years. That is why you need some type of plan to replace those resources as time goes by and have some way to generate some type of income or at least items to trade. Usable goods are for the short term and things like gold ,silver and production equipment are for the long term to help you get through the crisis with the least amount of pain.

Even with proper planning the days ahead will not be easy as the standard of living of society will fall substantially to levels only seen in failed third world countries or old pictures. The assets actually owned by people today is very small compared to how they live. They will default on their home loan, their car loan, and their credit card debt leaving them with very few real possessions and few ways to move what they have left even if they have some place to go. Ultimately these people will become the new serfs to the wealthy class that will take possession of anything of value. Feudalism will once again rule.

The lack of planning by society will make this a reality if it is allowed. What will you do when everything you have worked a lifetime for is suddenly taken away? Do you have a plan to keep what you have? Do you have a plan to make money when you cannot find a job? Do you have a way to take care of your family until things stabilize? Do you have a home you will not lose if the whole system breaks down? What will you do if electricity or fuel is too expensive to buy or not available to the general population? These are the questions you should be asking yourself now and you better have a good answer because your family will be asking them when the greater depression sets in.

by Tom Chatham | ZeroHedge

Government Using NSA to Change Amount in Bank Accounts, Warns Panel

A White House review panel report into the activities of the NSA suggested that the government was using the spy agency to launch cyber attacks against financial institutions and change the amounts held in bank accounts.

Image: ATM Customers (YouTube).

The 300 page report prepared for President Barack Obama by the Review Group on Intelligence and Communications Technology called for the NSA to be stripped of its power to obtain bulk collections of telephone records.

Page 221 of the panel’s report states;

(1) Governments should not use surveillance to steal industry secrets to advantage their domestic industry;

(2) Governments should not use their offensive cyber capabilities to change the amounts held in financial accounts or otherwise manipulate the financial systems.

Trevor Timm from the Electronic Frontier Foundation responded to the report by suggesting that the NSA was targeting major financial institutions.

In the aftermath of the Edward Snowden revelations it was confirmed that, “The National Security Agency (NSA) widely monitors international payments, banking and credit card transactions,” under the auspices of an international branch called Follow the Money (FTM), and that the spy agency has full access to the VISA and SWIFT payment systems.

“Top financial experts say that the NSA and other intelligence agencies are using information gained from spying to profit from this inside information. And the NSA wants to ramp up its spying on Wall Street … to “protect” it. “Whose money, exactly, is the NSA “protecting” … and how are they protecting it?” asks Washington’s Blog, “What about the money of people that the U.S. government considers undesirables?”

The government’s ability to use the NSA to directly amend bank accounts increases the risk of Americans being subjected to a Cyprus-style “bail-in” where a tax on savings deposits is directly levied in the name of austerity.

Earlier this year, Chase Bank customers attempted to withdraw their cash from ATMs only to be shocked at seeing their balance reduced to zero by a mystery system “glitch”. Was this in any way connected to the NSA’s activities?

With banks increasingly moving towards capital controls in a bid to stave off the risk of a sudden flight from the US dollar, the prospect of the US government relying on cyber attacks launched by the NSA to manipulate financial markets and bank accounts remains a genuine possibility.

by Paul Joseph Watson | Infowars

From Over-Population To De-Population: A Total Game Changer

Simultaneous Elderly Overpopulation, Youth Depopulation & The Impact on Economic Growth:

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Strangely, the world is suffering from two seemingly opposite trends…overpopulation and depopulation in concert.  The overpopulation is due to the increased longevity of elderly lifespans vs. depopulation of young populations due to collapsing birthrates.  The depopulation is among most under 25yr old populations (except Africa) and among many under 45yr old populations.

So, the old are living decades longer than a generation ago but their adult children are having far fewer children.  The economics of this is a complete game changer and is unlike any time previously in the history of mankind.  None of the models ever accounted for a shrinking young population absent income, savings, or job opportunity vs. massive growth in the old with a vast majority reliant on government programs in their generally underfunded retirements (apart from a minority of retirees who are wildly “overfunded”).  There are literally hundreds of reasons for the longer lifespans and lower birthrates…but that’s for another day.  This is simply a look at what is and what is likely to be absent a goal-seeked happy ending.

In a short yet economically valid manner, every person is a unit of consumption.  The greater the number of people and the greater the purchasing power, the greater the growth in consumption.  So, if one wanted to gauge economic growth, (growth in consumption driving economic growth), multiply the annual change in population by purchasing power (wages, savings) per capita.  Regarding wage growth, I hold wages flat as from a consumption standpoint, wage growth is basically offset by inflation.  Of course, there is another lever beyond this which central banks are feverishly torqueing; substituting the lower interest rates of ZIRP and NIRP to boost consumption from a flagging base of population growth.  (There is one more boost to consumption, huge increases in social transfer payments primarily among the advanced economies…but while noted, these are a story for another day.)

THE DETAILS:

The chart below is total annual population growth broken down by OECD nations (33 wealthiest nations…representing 1.3 billion people, OECD members), BRIICS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, S. Africa…representing 3.4 billion people), and the RoW (Rest of the World…representing about 3 billion people).  Takeaways – 1) total annual population growth peaked in 1988 and has been decelerating since falling 13% & now down 12m/yr from peak.  2) Growth has been shifting away from the BRIICS to the RoW.

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Below, global annual total population change vs. under 45 annual population change broken down by OECD, BRIICS, and the Rest of World What should be clear…1) under 45 population growth has fallen by nearly 60% & is down 44m/yr from peak growth.  2) All under 45 population growth (net) is among the poorer nations of the Rest of the World.  Growth has shifted from rich to middle to poor nations and from young to old.  Those with little income, savings, and/or access to credit can’t consume much.  Elderly on fixed incomes, declining vitality, and credit averse won’t consume much.  Clearly, the impact of the slowing and shifting population growth on slowing growth of consumption should be easily understood.

2

Global annual population growth by GDP per capita.  OECD nations given an average of $40k per capita, BRIICS $15k per capita, and the RoW $8k per capita (below).  Annual growth in consumption peaked in 1989 and has been falling since…of course this is unadjusted for the big impact that credit has to increase real consumption.

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Global annual under 45 population growth by GDP per capita further broken down by growth among OECD, BRIICS, & RoW (below).  The deceleration of global GDP per capita is entirely among the under 45 OECD and BRIICS which have nearly entirely ceased.  The only under 45 growth in consumption is among the decelerating RoW.

4

Below, 0-64yr/old annual global population growth vs. 0-64yr/old population growth among combined OECD, China, Brazil, and Russia vs global debt growth.  The surge in debt since 1988 coinciding with the collapse of growth among the wealth OECD and aspiring BRIICS (growth has fallen from 30m/yr to 3m/yr (90% decline) and growth among the RoW has entirely stalled since ’88 at +55m/yr.  The central bank response to take interest rates to ZIRP (and now NIRP) has been an attempt to maintain consumption growth against declining population growth.  Only central bankers know what they’ll do as under 65yr/old populations begin outright shrinking nearly everywhere but Africa?!?

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A look at annual global populations; young vs. old (below).  The 0-5yr/old population has stalled but nowhere near so for the 75+yr/old population.  In 1950 there were ten “babes” for every 75+yr/old…by 2050, the two groups are estimated to be 1:1 but this estimate is likely to be far too optimistic if economic conditions continue deteriorating.

6

US 20-59yr/old annual population growth vs. the Federal Reserves FFR (%) and US total debt (below).  Federal Reserve actions have been and remain a simple (ultimately unwinnable) fight vs. the decelerating growth among the core US population since the early 1980’s.  The great recession of 2008-’09 shouldn’t be a shocker given the sharp 20-59yr/old population growth deceleration culminating in ’07.

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Below, Japan’s 20-59yr/old annual population growth vs. BOJ interest rate and Japanese federal debt.  Japan’s annual core population turned negative in ’00 and interest rates hit ZIRP and debt creation took off.  Japan’s plan to monetize likely well in excess of 100% and maybe ultimately 1,000% or 10,000% of GDP is a curious solution which may lead to an eventual hiccup which leaves Japanese society in absolute chaos (2nd chart below).  But if it were only Japan that had this plan…but alas, it is the same for all major central banks presently or eventually facing depopulation.  (Debt in chart below is denominated in Yen, not dollars).

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Below, Germany’s 20-59yr/old annual population change vs. debt to GDP.  Germany’s 20-59yr/old population turned negative in ’94 but the implementation of the Euro and Euro wide market (with the Maastrich treaty in 1992 and implementation Euro area wide in 1999) quintupled Germany’s available export base under a now common currency (2nd chart below).  The impact was a stay of execution for Germany but a grinding, terminal cancer for the remainder of the Euro area.

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Below, China’s annual 20-59yr/old population change, Bank of China interest rates, and China total debt growth.  Annual Chinese core population growth has collapsed since ’08 by 90% and will turn negative in 2018 and remain increasingly negative for decades thereafter.  The insane Chinese debt ramp to offset the declining population growth has no possible means to resolve in any manner but catastrophe. 

***Noteworthy, despite China’s recent elimination of it’s “one child policy”, it should be noted that China’s birthrates are higher than Japan, S. Korea, Taiwan, and many EU nations…none of whom have any policies restricting births and most with policies to encourage higher fertility.  The elimination of the “one child” policy in China is unlikely to have significant impact…family finances and struggling economies are far more likely to determine family formation in China and world-over.***

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CONCLUSION

An economic and financial system premised on perpetual growth was bound to run into trouble (what do you do when you have taken a wrong turn?…apparently just keep going!).  The inevitable deceleration of population growth was the trigger that turned central bankers into pushers offering ever cheaper credit.  The lower rates drove unsustainable rates of consumption absent even further rate cuts and likewise drove overcapacity which likewise needed even lower rates.  But negative rates of NIRP are simply no longer under the heading of capitalism (a market that doesn’t value capital likely isn’t capitalism?!?).  When we’ve clearly changed “ism’s”…we’ve crossed the Rubicon.

What happens as population growth turns to population decline is honestly and literally a complete and total game changer.  A flat to declining number of buyers and consumers opposite ramping elderly sellers plus their unfunded liabilities is a problem with no happy resolutions.  Currencies (what will constitute “money”), “free-markets”, and perhaps the basis of civilization hang in the balance of the transition from high population growth to potential outright depopulation.

I believe this is the correct lens through which to view and understand why growth is perpetually weakening, why commodity overcapacity and slowing demand will only accelerate, why the Treasury market continues to see “buying” despite the near total absence of buyers (Treasury Mystery), why equities are a “buy” (but for all the wrong reasons), and why precious metal valuations are so extremely suspect in the face of a monetary onslaught. 

by Chris Hamilton | ZeroHedge

Cowboy Codes Of The West

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These American cowboy codes of the west were common sense approaches to cowboy and western etiquette. Many deal with horses, shooting and a little bit about how to act around a woman.

Never pass anyone on the trail without saying “Howdy”

When approaching someone from behind, give a loud greeting before you get within pistol shot.

Don’t wave at a man on a horse. It might spook the horse and the man will think you’re an idiot (a nod is the proper greeting).

After you pass someone on the trail, don’t look back at him. It implies you don’t trust him.

Riding another man’s horse without his permission is nearly as bad as making love to his wife. Never even bother another man’s horse.

Never shoot an unarmed man. Never shoot a woman at all.

A cowboy is pleasant, even when out of sorts. Complaining is what quitters do and cowboys hate quitters.

Always be courageous. Cowards aren’t tolerated in any outfit worth its salt.

A cowboy always helps someone in need, even a stranger or enemy.

When you leave town after a weekend of carousing, it’s perfectly all right to shoot your six-guns into the air, whoop like crazy and ride your horse as fast as you can. This is called “hurrahing” a town.

A horse thief may be hung peremptorily.

Never try on another man’s hat.

Never wake another man by shaking or touching him. He might wake up suddenly and shoot you.

Real cowboys are modest. A braggart who is “all gurgle and no guts” is not tolerated.

A cowboy doesn’t talk much; he saves his breath for breathing.

No matter how weary and hungry you are after a long day in the saddle, always tend to your horse’s needs before your own, and get your house some feed before you eat.

Cuss all you want, but only around men, horses and cows.

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Furious 7 – Trailer

Take five with Marty Robbins y’all