Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) should wake up to the reality that if a war breaks out in the Strait – the island’s defense will collapse, and the US military won’t come to help, according to an op-ed in Chinese state-run media outlet Global Times.
DPP authorities should wake up from their secessionist dreams from China and observe the rapid withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan.
Global Times provides several accounts of the US abandoning its allies over the last few centuries.
Many people cannot help but recall how the Vietnam War ended in 1975:
- The US abandoned its allies in South Vietnam.
- Saigon was taken over.
- The US evacuated almost all its citizens in Saigon.
And in 2019, US troops withdrew from northern Syria abruptly and abandoned their allies, the Kurds. Some historians also point out that abandoning allies to protect US interests is an inherent flaw that has been deeply rooted in the US since the founding of the country. During the American War of Independence, the US humbly begged the king of France, Louis XVI, to ally with it. After the war, it quickly made peace with Britain unilaterally and concluded a peace treaty with Britain that was detrimental to France’s interests. This put Louis XVI’s regime in a difficult position, giving cause for the French Revolution.
The Chinese state-run media outlet, a mouthpiece for the communist regime, said, “Washington abandoned the Kabul regime particularly shocked some in Asia, including the island of Taiwan.”
Washington has been supplying Taiwan with defensive weapons to protect itself from a future Chinese invasion. Bejing believes Taiwan is part of China and has plans to reclaim what is rightfully theirs.
The question Global Times points out is if the US will pull out of Taiwan (like it just did in Afghanistan) if war erupts. The media outlet says, “DPP authorities need to keep a sober head, and the secessionist forces should reserve the ability to wake up from their dreams” and learn from what’s happening in Afghanistan.
From what happened in Afghanistan, they should perceive that once a war breaks out in the Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours and the US military won’t come to help. As a result, the DPP authorities will quickly surrender, while some high-level officials may flee by plane.
As the situation in Afghanistan quickly deteriorates, China wants to gain the upper hand in the Strait and has conducted a military drill Tuesday in the sea and airspace around the southeast and southwest of Taiwan island, according to Bloomberg. Chinese fighter jets, anti-submarine aircraft, warships, and other military forces participated in the drill.
Bejing is closely watching the developments of Afghanistan. It understands US history of how Washington is quick to abandon its allies and now believes that if a cross-Strait conflict breaks out, the US will be nowhere to be found.
Maybe the US won’t stick around because computer simulations show the US military is no match against China in an Indo-Pacific war.